1. Favorable factors for the development of chlor-alkali chemical industry
(1) Domestic economic development rebounds
The development status of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry is closely related to the national economic situation. Since the reform and opening up, my country's macro-economy has continued to grow, and the process of industrialization and urbanization has continued to accelerate. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2009 to 2019, my country's GDP increased from 34,851.8 billion yuan to 99,086.5 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 11.01%. The sustained growth of the national economy provides a good economic environment for the rapid development of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry as well as the chlor-alkali industry.
(2) Industrial policies guide industry integration
In order to improve the overall competitiveness of the chlor-alkali industry, reduce energy and raw material consumption, and achieve sustainable development, the country has continuously introduced industrial policies to guide the healthy and stable development of the industry. The National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments of the State Council have promulgated the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structural Adjustment". express , encourage the development and application of comprehensive utilization technologies such as zero pole distance, oxygen cathode plasma membrane caustic soda electrolyzer energy-saving technology, and chlorine production from waste hydrochloric acid. By formulating industrial policies, the state restricts small-scale and backward technology projects and raises industry entry barriers, which is conducive to increasing industrial concentration, improving the competitive environment, promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, and achieving healthy and coordinated development.
(3) Development of futures and spot electronic trading
In recent years, PVC futures and spot electronic trading have been continuously explored and developed. The combination of electronic trading and spot trade not only improves the efficiency of market resource allocation, but also better meets the needs of enterprises in trade, financing, logistics and risk. The diversified needs in aspects such as control have opened new channels for the transformation of corporate marketing methods and provided new options for the innovation of industry marketing models. Futures and spot electronic trading have played an important influence and promotion role in the innovation of the industry's traditional marketing model. Excerpted from "China's Chlor-Alkali Industry Prospects Forecast and Investment Research Report 2024-2029" by Ruiguan Consulting
(4) Integrate into the national "Belt and Road" strategy
The main export directions of my country's chlor-alkali products are basically consistent with the countries covered by the "One Belt, One Road" initiative. In recent years, India, Russia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand and other countries have become key countries in my country's PVC trade. At the same time, my country's caustic soda export countries basically cover the countries along the "Belt and Road". As a basic chemical raw material, caustic soda provides an important supplement to the development needs of the basic industries of the above-mentioned countries, such as chemical products, textiles, printing and dyeing, non-ferrous metals and other industries. . With the development of infrastructure construction in the "Belt and Road" countries and the improvement of people's lives, my country's polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda products will have greater demand potential.
(5) Tighter management of imported solid waste catalogs
In order to further standardize the import management of solid waste and prevent and control environmental pollution, in April 2018, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the General Administration of Customs adjusted the current "Catalogue of Prohibited Import of Solid Waste"; after the adjustment, the waste Sixteen types of solid waste, including hardware, scrap ships, scrap automobile pressing parts, smelting slag, and waste plastics from industrial sources, have been transferred from the import restricted category to the "Catalogue of Prohibited Import of Solid Waste" and will be implemented from December 31, 2018. The above adjustments will prohibit the import of waste plastics from industrial sources, which will help reduce disordered supply in the domestic plastics market, improve the market supply and demand environment of the issuer's industry, and promote the healthy development of the downstream application plastics market for polyvinyl chloride. Excerpted from "China's Chlor-Alkali Industry Development Forecast and Investment Strategy Analysis Report 2023-2028" by Ruiguan Consulting
2. Unfavorable factors for the development of the chlor-alkali chemical industry
(1) Environmental protection requirements are becoming increasingly stricter
The development of clean production, green chemical industry and circular economy model has become the main direction and inevitable trend of national industrial policy. In terms of environmental protection, as far as the production process is concerned, the chlor-alkali industry has a wide variety of products, and the corresponding by-products and wastewater, waste gas and solid waste emissions are also large, which puts great pressure on the environment. The most important factor affecting the sustainable development of calcium carbide process polyvinyl chloride is the prevention and control of mercury pollution. With the increasing depletion of mercury resources in China and the international Minamata Convention on Mercury taking effect in our country, the issue of mercury pollution prevention and control in calcium carbide process polyvinyl chloride has become increasingly important. Sexuality becomes more apparent.
(2) Sustainable development faces the test of low-carbonization
In September 2014, China launched the National Plan to Address Climate Change (2014-2020), a national special plan to ensure that carbon emission intensity in 2020 is reduced by 40%-45% compared to 2005. As an important basic chemical raw material industry, the chlor-alkali industry is also a traditional high-energy-consuming industry. Fulfilling international conventions, low-carbon development, energy conservation and emission reduction, improving energy efficiency and industrial structure adjustment will become one of the important factors determining the sustainable development of the chlor-alkali industry.
(3) New changes in the global economic and trade pattern are excerpted from "2023-2028 China's Chlor-Alkali Industry Development Forecast and Investment Strategy Analysis Report" by Ruiguan Consulting
The US-led "Trans-Pacific Strategic Partnership" and the "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement" will each account for more than one-third of the world's economic GDP, and China, the world's second largest economy, is not among them. The current era of significant progress in multilateral trade negotiations is basically over, and the world is at a turning point in the trading system. The scale of trade determines my country's economic growth rate to a certain extent, and the structure of export products and trade methods also affect the intensity of my country's industrial structure adjustment and transformation. The new international trade rules that developed countries are planning to rebuild will pose challenges to the development of my country's chlor-alkali industry.
3. Main barriers to entry in the chlor-alkali chemical industry
(1) Policy barriers
In order to curb the blind expansion trend of the chlor-alkali industry, promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, standardize the development of the industry, and improve the comprehensive competitiveness of the industry, the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission includes "acetylene-based polyvinyl chloride with a starting scale of less than 300,000 tons/year of ethylene oxychlorination polyvinyl chloride" and "newly constructed soda ash (except underground circulating alkali production and trona), caustic soda (except ion membrane caustic soda device for comprehensive utilization of waste salt)" (National Development and Reform Commission in October 2019 The "Industrial Structural Adjustment Guidance Catalog (2019 Edition)" released on the 30th) is clearly listed as restricted. Against the macro backdrop of national industrial restructuring and the elimination of excess production capacity, relevant policies and regulations have established high policy barriers for new entrants in the chlor-alkali industry.
(2) Financial barriers
The scale of investment in fixed assets for the construction of projects related to the chlor-alkali industry is relatively large. Enterprises in the industry lack sufficient financial strength and find it difficult to gain a foothold in market competition. At the current stage, the industrial policy of the domestic chlor-alkali industry has relatively high investment requirements for new production capacity. The investment amounts for new projects are all at the level of 100 million yuan. The scale of funds and operating efficiency have become important factors for the sustainable development of chlor-alkali enterprises. Entering the chlor-alkali industry requires a large amount of initial capital investment, which constitutes a financial barrier to the chlor-alkali industry.
(3) Scale barriers
In recent years, the operating scale of domestic chlor-alkali enterprises has gradually expanded, and industry concentration has continued to increase. According to data from the China Chlor-Alkali Network, in 2019, the production capacity of enterprises with a production capacity of 300,000 tons/year and above in the polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda industries accounted for 81.50% and 81.5% respectively. 65.10%. New entrants to the industry need to reach a certain economic scale before they can compete with existing entrants in the industry in terms of equipment, technology, cost, etc. As a result, the chlor-alkali industry has formed a relatively obvious scale barrier for potential entrants.
(4) Environmental protection barriers
The chlor-alkali chemical industry is a key industry monitored by the state for environmental protection. Entry into the industry must comply with the state's environmental protection requirements for the industry. As my country's requirements for environmental protection continue to increase, newly invested and constructed chemical projects need to meet more stringent environmental standards. New entrants to the industry are required to have complete and high-standard environmental protection equipment when investing in and constructing projects, thereby establishing an environment for potential entrants. Higher barriers to entry. The improvement of environmental protection barriers limits the low-level production competition of small enterprises that invest and build at will, and has a positive role in promoting the development of large-scale enterprises with complete environmental protection facilities.
